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 October 26, 2009
Congratulations to Winner of 8oz Silver!
    Author: Formation Capital Corporation

 Congratulations go out to Mr. Orval Barnes of Garibaldi Highlands, BC as the winner of 8oz of silver from Formation Capital's Sunshine Refinery. Mr. Barnes was in attendance at the "Money Talks All Star Trading Super Summit" at the Sheraton Vancouver Wall Center on October 24th where Formation Capital was an exhibitor.

The Money Talks Trading Summit was hosted by Michael Campbell and featured expert speakers such as Victor Adair, Tyler Bollhorn, Jack Crooks, Dennis Gartman, Peter Grandich, Mark Leibovit, Steve Todd and Chris Lori.

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 October 23, 2009
Electric Cars Could Pose a Challenge to Rare Earth Supply in "Nightmare Scenario"
    Publisher: MetalMiner
    Author: Sturat Burns

 October 23rd, 2009

Dr Irving Mintzer principal of MEG LLC, an energy consulting firm, described a "nightmare scenario" at the Critical & Strategic Metals Summit in Washington DC this week. Driven not by cost advantage but by a combination of government incentives, legislation and taxation, Dr Mintzer painted a picture of a world in 2030 in which a third of the probable 72 million vehicles produced each year by that time are either fully electric or hybrid petrol/electric vehicles. Why is that a nightmare scenario you may ask? Surely that would be a quieter, cleaner altogether better world if the role of the internal combustion engine was reduced? Well indeed it would be a quieter, cleaner world, the nightmare element is the demand it would put on electric power generation and on production of certain key metals needed to make such vehicles.

True 2030 is a quite a long way off. Twenty years is probably a reasonable timescale to design and build a smart grid capable of handling the power demands such a switch would make. It is also just about long enough to build the mix of nuclear and renewable energy sources that would be required to meet the power demands without increasing our carbon emission even more than they currently are. It would hopefully be long enough to improve renewable technologies sufficiently that they are economical without the subsidies they need now to achieve project funding. But metal demands look challenging; by Dr Mintzer's estimations at current Cobalt (Co) and Neodymium (Nd) content levels in a typical Lithium ion battery (everyone agrees there is enough Lithium, it's the minor metals needed for the cathodes and for the braking regeneration units that will be the challenge) it's hard to see where the metal will come from. In current cars some 5kgs of Co and 2 kgs of Nd are needed in every car. Even if improved technology reduced this to 0.5kgs of cobalt and 1 kg of Nd the world would need an additional 12,000 tons of cobalt and worse some 24,000 tons of Nd. According to an informative presentation given by David Weight of the Cobalt Development Institute, the world currently produces about 55,000 tons of cobalt and is broadly in supply/demand balance. Some 50% of supply comes from the politically unstable Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world's richest source of cobalt. The rest mostly comes as a by product of nickel and copper production and is hence somewhat price inelastic, meaning the primary economics of the mine are driven by nickel and copper demand not cobalt. Cobalt demand has risen at a steady 5.6% for the last ten years which if extrapolated forward would see demand in the region of 163,500 tons, before we add in additional demands for electric cars. Extrapolating figures back from a separate presentation given at the conference by Dudley Kingsnorth, Neodymium production is currently around 17,000 tons and typically represents about 16.3% of Rare Earth deposits. Pretty much all of it currently comes from China but several new potential mines were promoted at the conference, all looking for funding. In reality no more than two of these are likely to come to fruition with a probable production capacity of less than 30,000 tons, at the above Nd content guide that would yield just 5,000 tons of Nd, somewhat short of the additional 24,000 tons required. As Dudley Kingsnorth explained in a video interview on MetalMiner earlier today these Rare Earth mines and processing facilities take at least 10 years to go through environmental, feasibility and funding stages before a kg of metal is produced. In reality, Dr. Mintzer's scenario is unlikely to become reality but the above projections illustrate the dramatic effect a new technology can potentially have on metal demand when supply is finite.

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 October 23, 2009
Growth in electric vehicle sector to boost demand for cobalt and neodymium
    Publisher: Metal-Pages.com

 WASHINGTON D.C. (Metal-Pages) 23-Oct-09. Demand for cobalt and neodymium is set to surge as automakers are expected to ramp up production of electric and hybrid vehicles, according to Dr Irving Mintzer, principal at Meg LLC.

Based on a high demand scenario for vehicles powered by electric drive chains, Mintzer forecasted that additional demand for cobalt could double from current levels to 120,000 tonnes a year worldwide and 48,000 tonnes a year for neodymium by 2030.

The rise in demand for cobalt will be twice the current overall rate of global production, he told the Managing Supply Chain Risks for Critical and Strategic Metals conference in Washington D.C.

In the U.S. alone, Minzter forecasted that demand for cobalt could rise by an additional 25,000 tonnes a year and 10,000 tonnes for neodymium if demand for electric vehicles gathers pace in line with some analysts' projections.

"Where in the world is the production going to increase rapidly enough to meet the additional levels in annual demand?" he said.

"As we promote these technologies we need to think a little bit further ahead and look at what it means to lower dependence on imported oil from countries maybe considered unstable or unfriendly and increase our demand for these essential components."

Under a low demand scenario for vehicles containing cobalt and neodymium components, Mintzer forecasted additional demand for cobalt to hit 12,000 tonnes a year and 24,000 tonnes a year for neodymium by 2030.

The forecast comes as automakers produce more electric vehicles using materials such as samarium-cobalt and neodymium magnets for electric motors in hybrid cars such as the Toyota Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Foucs.

Concerns over the dependence on foreign oil and environmental issues are expected to boost sales of hybrid and electric vehicles.

With the U.S. government also now pledging funds to spur investment in cleaner and more efficient vehicles, cars containing electric drive chains could account for about one third of the U.S market by 2030, according to Mintzer.

He also suggested that about one third of the 72 million vehicles sold worldwide could contain electric drive chains.

Other industry participants believe the market penetration of electric and hybrid vehicles may be lower than some forecasts as the technology is slow to develop.

Lux Resources has forecasted that electric and hybrid cars will only account for about 6 million vehicles of the total auto market by 2020.

-END-
 
 October 08, 2009
Around 25 Congo mining deals risk cancellation
    Publisher: Reuters
    Author: Thomas Hubert

 * Projects at risk invole "second tier" assets
* Tenke Fungurume negotiation deadline Oct. 12

KINSHASA, Oct 8 (Reuters)
- Some 25 mining contracts in Congo involving "second tier" copper, diamond, and gold assets could be scrapped if companies fail to present the results of feasibility studies by a December dealine, the Ministry of Mines said on Thursday.

"We will see if the studies were done. They will be able to present their reasons, and the cabinet will decide whether to extend (the deadline) or withdraw the permits. The goal is to have these assets in capable hands," Deputy Mines Minister Victor Kasongo told Reuters.

Congo completed a review of 61 mining contracts in August as part of an effort to boost state revenues from agreements signed mostly during the chaos and corruption of a 1998-2003 war and the transitional government that followed.

However, many companies that saw their partnerships approved by the review panel have yet to present required feasibility study results, Mines Minister Martin Kabwelulu told an investor conference in Kinshasa on Wednesday.
"Certain partners started work without finalising their feasibility studies," he said.

The companies were initially asked to present the results among documents submitted at the start of the long-delayed review process. But the government extended the deadline when it became clear that the majority of companies had not yet completed their studies.

"Eleven companies were either in production or gave feasibility studies. The rest gave nothing. So far we've still received nothing, and we've asked," Kasongo said Thursday.

He said around 25 projects in possession of what he described as "second tier assets" in the copper, diamond, and gold sectors were subject to the December deadline. He did not name the projects.

Congo cancelled a copper and cobalt mining contract with Kingamyambo Musonoi Tailings, a unit of First Quantum (FM.TO) (FQM.L) in August on the grounds that it had failed to enter into commercial production within an agreed timeframe.

Freeport McMoran (FCX.N) and Lundin Mining (LUN.TO), parnters in the giant Tenke Fungurume Mining copper and cobalt project, have been given until October 12 to complete negotiations with the government or risk losing their permit.

But despite lingering doubts over the fate of the country's largest foreign-owned projects, analysts had expected completion of the review to boost investor confidence in Congo's high-risk but potentially lucrative mining sector. (Additional reporting by Joe Bavier in Lubumbashi, Congo; Editing by Richard Valdmanis).

-END-
 
 September 18, 2009
AN ODE TO INSANITY - Farewell, Katanga
    Publisher: MineWeb
    Author: Barry Sergeant

 A mining veteran packs his bags, as jaws savagely tighten around the two biggest mining companies in the central African copperbelt.

JOHANNESBURG -

A mining veteran who has tried to crank up broken down vehicles more times than he cares to remember has decided to pack his bags, days after First Quantum announced that it had suspended work at the 65% complete US$600m Kolwezi tailings project, Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Katanga Province, which hosts some of the world's biggest and highest grade copper deposits (with cobalt as byproduct) employs a general prosecutor, who sealed Kolwezi tailings, an action described by First Quantum as "illegal". The insane move on Kolwezi tailings has been long in the making, and was no surprise to anyone familiar with the story.

The mining veteran - let's call him Jim Bender - says "it's sad that the government is intent on self destruction by taking precipitous action to destroy the two best projects in Katanga". The other one, of course, is the biggest copper mine in the DRC, Tenke Fungurume, where Freeport-McMoRan operates and holds 58.8%; Lundin holds 24.8% and DRC parastatal Gécamines (La Générale des Carrières et des Mines) the balance of 17.5%. The first phase at the mine cost US$1.8bn to build, and produced its first copper cathode earlier this year.

Bender continues: "To gain First Quantum as an investor is a major asset to any developing economy. It is a successful and also honest operator. Its anti corruption stand in the early days of the upsurge in activities is an example to all investors. First Quantum has a unique ability to think laterally and develop projects without outside help. The group's stock price reflects this success. First Quantum will rightly pursue this in the courts and win".

First Quantum and Freeport McMoRan continued their mine builds in Katanga Province during the great copper price slump, which commenced in mid-2008. Tens of thousands of artisanal miners were driven out of work. Bigger formal companies ran into cash crunches and had to take drastic action, as seen in the cases of Metorex, Katanga Mining, and Anvil; some, such as Camec, suspended mining, and other such as Africo halted plans to start building mines. Today, metal prices are at healthy levels, and an air confidence is returning, but First Quantum and Freeport McMoRan are taking severe punishment of a different kind.

There are heavy knock-ons: First Quantum points out that the sealing of Kolwezi tailings means the loss of 700 jobs in the Kolwezi area, loss of tax revenues to the DRC government, and an indefinite delay in commissioning of the Kolwezi Project, targeted for May 2010.

Where First Quantum holds 65% of Kolwezi, Gécamines holds 12.5%, the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) of South Africa 10%, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) 7.5%, and the government of the DRC, 5%. When commitments were made in November 2007 to proceed with the development of the Kolwezi tailings project, First Quantum, the IDC and IFC were left alone to raise finance or procure third party debt project financing for Kolwezi.

This is tough countryside for any mining company, and any individual. After becoming one of the world's wealthiest outlying nations during colonial rule, the country descended after independence into one hellpit after another. After the so-called second Congo war, from 1998 through 2003, peace accords assisted in ushering in a rush of foreign private capital aimed at recapitalising the wreckage of so many copper mines, rotting under the hellfroth of greed.

Intermittent fighting continues to this day, mainly in the remote northeast of the country, where AngloGold Ashanti and Moto Goldmines hold valuable gold concessions and deposits that have not been mined for decades. AngloGold Ashanti and Randgold Resources recently agreed a joint venture deal to buy Moto Goldmines. To the south, Banro holds substantial gold concessions west of Bukavu, and wants to start building a mine at Twangiza. During the colonial era, Bukavu was known as the "African Riviera", and for very good reason as anyone who has been there would know.

During the second Congo war, which saw more than 5m people prematurely meet their maker (outflanking the kill rate in the Second World War), mining continued, one way or another, down in Katanga Province, such is the richness of the ores. Given this week's events in and around Kolwezi tailings, Bender is worried that "the Tenke Fungurume story has not yet unfolded, but it could become the same thing on a larger scale. Frightening". There were strong rumours heard by Katanga insiders during April that Tenke Fungurume would be shuttered in six month's time, which is now not far away.

First Quantum has deeper roots in this part of the world. First Quantum had acquired Bwana Mkubwa, on the Zambian side of the copperbelt, in 1996. The grand old man exhausted the last of its own ore reserves in mid-2002; those "reserves" in any event were poor quality tailings from previous operations. The mine had been worked on and off since its discovery in 1902. So tattered and torn was Bwana Mkubwa that First Quantum's acquisition was a straight commercial deal. The mine's state of dereliction and apparently hopeless future left it outside the mandate of the copper industry privatisation initiated by the Zambian government. First Quantum, headed to ore reserve starvation from when it bought Bwana Mkubwa, "rediscovered" Lonshi, just over the DRC border, in 2000.

The small, rich, deposit had first been found by Belgian geologists in the 1930s, but had never been worked. First Quantum sunk the first modern drill holes into Lonshi in November 2000, and commissioned the US$25m mine just eight months later. Lonshi was the first greenfields copper mine built on the copperbelt in 33 years. First Quantum also built the next one, a very big one, Kansanshi, at a deposit known since 1899, in Zambia. But make no mistake, these were rotten times for the copper price. In 2002, Anglo American quit Zambia Copper Investments (ZCI) and its main interest, Konkola Copper Mines, at a cost of US$34m in addition to a US$353m write-off taken in 2001. The smart guys at First Quantum soldiered on.

In mid-2006 I found myself bundu bashing with First Quantum, and it was on the road to Lonshi that I met Prince Marvelous. I was told that he had nine wives, but did not have time to meet them all. He would strike anyone as fearless, and keeping up with nine wives was evidence that he was fearless. His palace stood just off a dusty but solid laterite road just before the Lonshi border crossing.

Prince Marvelous had every reason to be confident, standing as he was atop a gigantic unmined copper-cobalt deposit that could one day underpin his ascendancy to the throne of the King of Africa. He was standing on the Central African Copperbelt, which extends some 500km through Zambia and into the DRC's Katanga province. The belt is around 50km in width.

The copperbelt hosts one of the world's greatest contiguous mineral deposits, and many decades ago, settlements like Ndola and Kitwe in Zambia, and Lubumbashi across the border, were among the wealthiest in the world. All the while, the 40-ton Volvo trucks went on, thundering down the road past the dreamy Prince Marvellous. The huge trucks ran "hot," with two drivers working consecutive 12 hour shifts, seven days a week, hauling ore 36km from Lonshi to Bwana Mkubwa.

But if it was going to be much of a story, then it must mention that First Quantum acquired mining rights for Lonshi in 2000, but it was only in mid-January 2003 when First Quantum acquired inalienable rights under the new Congolese Mining Code. The formulation of the code, regarded as truly world class, was heavily sponsored by the World Bank. Those were the days, all right.

Back in the present tense, Bender continues: "In all my time here I have not seen the government get involved in its responsibilities, such as building roads, providing electricity and water, and so on. The mining companies have to do all of this, as well as build their plants. The border, through which all of the thousands of trucks have to pass with construction inputs and the metal exports, is widely recognized as the most corrupt and obstructive in the world".

Bender is referring, of course, to Kasumbalesa (sometimes "Kasile"), less than 100km south-south-east of the Katanga Province capital, Lubumbashi. In times gone by, Lubumbashi was connected by rail to the deep south, to Johannesburg, and on to Durban or Cape Town, or even Maputo. It was also connected via the Benguela system to the west to the port of Lobito in Angola. It is via the Katanga link that the Benguela system also connects east through exchanges in Zambia to further connections to Mozambique's port of Beira, and also Tanzania's Dar es Salaam, both on the Indian Ocean.

Today, the Benguela rail system would cost tens of billions of dollars to build from scratch. Today, the railroads are frugal skeletons of a long forgotten glorious era. Today there is only Kasumbalesa, with its filth and grime and corruption and abject hopelessness, a tollgate into and out of hell, teeming with devils. "This is not an enabling environment", states Bender, "quite the contrary. My time in the DRC is drawing to a close. I shall remain in contact with the DRC as a consultant to a civils company".

You may wonder where a somewhat disillusioned Bender is off to. Well, here it goes: "I am heading back to Zimbabwe where I hope to develop a gold mining business". And perhaps that says it all; hell comes in big packages, but some are smaller than others. Farewell, Katanga.

-END-
 
 September 16, 2009
MORE RUMBLINGS IN THE CONGO - First Quantum suspends Kolwezi
    Publisher: MineWeb
    Author: Barry Sergeant

 Leading African copper-gold accuses the Democratic Republic of the Congo of "illegal" actions over US$593m mine, now 65% complete.

JOHANNESBURG - African copper-gold miner First Quantum on Wednesday announced suspension of the build of the Kolwezi tailings copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, following actions taken by authorities characterised by First Quantum as "illegal".

Heat around the US$593m mine, 65% owned by First Quantum, and currently described as 65% complete, started rising many months ago in the bent crucible of the so-called mining contracts "revisitation" review process initiated by the DRC.

The review of most contracts has been concluded, barring that for Kolwezi tailings, and also over the biggest copper mine in the DRC, Tenke Fungurume, where Freeport-McMoRan operates and holds 58.8%; Lundin holds 24.8% and DRC parastatal Gécamines (La Générale des Carrières et des Mines) the balance of 17.5%. The first phase at the mine cost US$1.8bn to build, and produced its first copper cathode earlier this year.

As for the Kolwezi tailings project, a syndicate of commercial and development banks were mandated in early 2008 to provide a US$450m facility for the US$593m project. Earlier this year, such banks reaffirmed, according to First Quantum, "that, subject to a satisfactory outcome to the revisitation process being conducted in the DRC, they are prepared to provide the financing subject to completion of documentation and standard conditions precedent for a facility of this nature".

The project debt, when available, would be used to repay the funding provided by First Quantum to date. First Quantum reduced cash outflow to the project during the first quarter, pushing out commissioning to the second quarter of 2010. First Quantum raised US$500m in fresh equity on 28 May this year, following an earlier capital call in April when it completed an equity issue of 9.3m new shares, raising CA$346m. The group's cash flows were impacted by lower copper prices, and its capital expenditure demands at various existing and new projects. First Quantum renewed a US$250m corporate revolving loan in January this year.

Where First Quantum holds 65% of Kolwezi, Gécamines holds 12.5%, the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) of South Africa 10%, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) 7.5%, and the government of the DRC, 5%. When commitments were made in November 2007 to proceed with the development of the Kolwezi tailings project, First Quantum, the IDC and IFC were left alone to raise finance or procure third party debt project financing for Kolwezi.

First Quantum owns and operates 80% of the Kansanshi copper-gold mine in Zambia ("a foundation asset"), 95% of Frontier in the DRC, the group's newest mine, 80% of the Guelb Moghrein gold-copper mine in Mauritania, 65% of the developing Kolwezi copper-cobalt project in the DRC, and, among other interests, exploration assets, including the Kevitsa copper-nickel-cobalt-gold-platinum-palladium project in Finland.

Concerns remain over Tenke and the position of Freeport-McMoRan, the world's biggest listed copper producer, biggest molybdenum miner, and a leading gold digger. In April, it was no secret that the Tenke Fungurume copper cobalt mine had been threatened with a shut down in six month's time. Whether this was true or not, the atmosphere remains dark and cold.

More than a few fingers have been pointed at Gécamines mandarin Paul Fortin, who is openly accused of holding a xenophobic position. It is open knowledge that Freeport-McMoRan negotiated every detail of the Tenke Fungurume agreement over several years, with Gécamines. The negotiations took place after the latest Congo war; indeed, the final documents have the authority of being formalised under a democratically elected government environment.

First Quantum summed up its official viewpoint today: "The company and the Kolwezi Project's other contributing partners, the IFC and the IDC, remain firmly of the view that the DRC government's actions have no legal basis. While the company is preparing to file for International Arbitration pursuant to the contract of association, it will continue to seek an alternative solution to the claims, which have resulted from the mining contract revisitation process, and will provide further updates as warranted".

First Quantum "regrets that the suspension will result in the immediate loss of approximately 700 jobs in the Kolwezi area, loss of tax revenues to the DRC government, and an indefinite delay in commissioning of the Kolwezi Project, which was targeted for May 2010".

-END-
 
 September 02, 2009
Volatility forecast for 2010 cobalt supply, prices
    Publisher: purchasing.com
    Author: Tom Stundza

 New LME cobalt contract could add to unpredictability

Buyers may see erratic and volatile supply of cobalt in coming months as the U.S. government and a major world producer abandon the market and the London Metal Exchange (LME) begins spot and futures trading early next year. That's the view of Paul Helsel, partner and founder of Pittsburgh-based Phoenixx International, speaking at an Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI) conference last week in Farmington, Pa.

Cobalt is used in numerous diverse commercial, industrial and military applications--ranging from rechargeable battery electrodes to superalloys--many of which are strategic and critical. Spot cathode sold in the U.S. in August averaged $20.03/lb, according to calculations posted on Purchasingdata.com, as the metal has progressed upward from a cyclical low of $14.25 in March.

More than 80% of cobalt used in the U.S. is imported, which may increase in 2010 since the U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center is down to 600,000 lb in inventory, compared with 96 million lb at the peak in 1992. The stocks "will be depleted by the end of this calendar year, or certainly within 6 months," Helsel tells the ISRI conference. "That throws out a big swing supplier."

The global market is bound to be affected by BHP Billiton's withdrawal from the cobalt market, Helsel says, since it will leave Switzerland's Glencore International, which markets other material for remaining cobalt ore processor Xstrata, in control of a lot of the high-grade cobalt. BHP Billiton last week announced its withdrawal from the cobalt spot market, following the end of its tolling agreement with Xstrata.

"That, along with the LME, could be a recipe for extreme volatility," Helsel says, referring to the imminent launch of cobalt trading on Feb. 22, 2010, and the need for the market to obtain sustainable and stable liquidity. Helsel worries that the first few months of trading will show a decoupling the LME futures and the physical spot markets.

Atop all that, Platts Metals Week newsletter reports that Zambia's cobalt producer, Chambishi Metals, is postponing the resumption of cobalt production indefinitely until there is further improvement in the price of cobalt to between $24 and $30/lb. The company shut the cobalt plant in December 2008, following a slump in the world price of cobalt below $10/lb. Until its shutdown, Chambishi Metals was Zambia's largest producer, producing 3,500 metric tons/year.

Production had been due to restart in July but has been delayed and now postponed, according to CEO Derek Webbstock, who says it would not make sense to resume production when the world price remains low. Platts says this week's 99.8% high-grade cobalt price is $21.50/lb delivered to the U.S.

-END-
 
 August 26, 2009
Cobalt poised for gains as six-week rally in FeMo, moly oxide ends
    Publisher: MetalBulletin.com

 
London 26 August 2009 Cobalt poised for further gains in September after steady summer rise



Cobalt prices are poised to see modest gains in September on increased buying from battery producers and tightness in high-grade metal.

The majority of market participants polled expect cobalt to rise by between $1 and $2 per lb by the end of September following steady gains through the European summer.

Low-grade cobalt has been trading at $17.50-18.50 per lb and high-grade cobalt has been trading at $18.80-20.20 per lb since August 12.

Prices have been firming steadily through the summer on better demand and more bullish sentiment.

Low-grade cobalt was trading at $12.60-13.30 per lb at the start of June, while high-grade metal was changing hands for $13.50-14.50 per lb.

An increase in consumer enquiries this week has given traders and producers hope for a more active September.

"I have seen a lot more enquiries this week," said one trader on Wednesday who has received interest for over 150 tonnes since Monday.

"I think it will go up steadily rather than rapidly. By the end of September we'll be slightly higher, perhaps up by a dollar," he said.

The bulk of the fresh enquiry has come from Asian battery producers, other sources agreed.

"We're seeing a lot of prices within range -- the Japanese seem to be coming back," said a producer.

The end of BHP Billiton's nickel-cobalt toll refining deal with Xstrata at the Nikkelverk refinery in Norway, which is due to come to an end this year, will lend support to the high-grade market, sources said.

The end of the deal would represent BHP's withdrawal from the market following the sale of its Yabulu refinery to Clive Palmer earlier this year.

Once the deal ends, it could take some 800 tonnes of high-grade metal out of the market and into the hands of either Glencore or of a long-term offtake partner, sources said. Glencore already markets other Falconbridge material for Xstrata.

"It would mean that the world has one less free-market cobalt supplier, and, all other things being equal, it should tighten the market up," said a second trader.

"It's all eyes on high-grade. The downside is limited and now it's down to consumers bringing in some meaningful enquiry," a third trader said.

High-grade has also taken support from the force majeure at Vale Inco's nickel-cobalt operations in Canada.

Vale Inco declared force majeure on its cobalt deliveries to US customers in the first week of August due to the strike at its Sudbury and Voisey's Bay operations.

Despite the bullish forecasts from much of the trade, consumers remain cautious, they told MB.

High Chinese cobalt ore and concentrate imports earlier this year when cobalt was trading as low as $9.90 per lb could still be resold to the market, one buyer said.

Cobalt concentrates cif main Chinese port are trading at $12.80-13.30 per lb compared with $11.50-12 per lb at the start of June.

"We're seeing the Chinese offering more and more aggressively, they're trying to get rid of the massive positions they built up months ago," he said.

 
 August 20, 2009
Cobalt supply deficit to give Sherritt boost
    Publisher: Financial Post
    Author: Michael Taylor-Reuters

 The global market for battery material cobalt will slide into a deficit next year, as rising demand and stalled production projects boost prices, Sherritt International says.

Martin Vydra, managing director at Toronto-based Sherritt International, predicts a cobalt deficit of between 1,000 and 3,000 tonnes in 2010.

"I believe that pricing is starting to now track supply and demand and that there is more room to go up," Mr. Vydra said yesterday.

Refined cobalt consumption in 2008 was estimated at about 60,000 tonnes, while total cobalt supply was at about 55,878 tonnes in 2008, says the Cobalt Development Institute.

Sherritt International, whose main assets are in Cuba, Canada and Madagascar, sells cobalt to offset nickel mining costs.

Sherritt produced a record high of 3,573 tonnes of cobalt in 2007 and 3,428 tonnes in 2008 and is looking to top last year's figure in 2009.

"We are the lowest-cost producer," Mr. Vydra said. "We are also the last supplier to be dropped by a consumer when they are cutting back.

"We do hear from consumers idling production or being careful with inventories in the past [but they] are now more confident that they can build inventories because their order books are full."

He said the rechargeable battery and super alloy industries were showing real signs of recovery, with more enquiries coming through from spot customers during the second quarter.

"When cobalt was $11/$12, you had a lot of buyers out there sitting on the fence but didn't want to jump in unless they knew it had hit the bottom," Mr. Vydra said.

Prices for high-grade 99.8 cobalt fell as low as $12 a pound in December, down from levels above $52 a pound in March last year.

A byproduct of both copper and nickel mining, cobalt is used to make aircraft engines and batteries for hybrid cars and is currently traded at about $19.25 a pound.

Mr. Vydra also said Sherritt's Ambatovy nickel project in Madagascar, which is currently under construction and expected to be fully operational at the end of in 2010, will bring an additional 5,600 tonnes per year of cobalt to the market.

"We will be probably the largest cobalt producer on the market," Mr. Vydra said.

-END-
 
 August 19, 2009
Global cobalt mkt faces deficit in 2010-Sherritt
    Publisher: Reuters
    Author: Reporting by Michael Taylor; editing by Keiron Henderson

 LONDON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The global market for battery material cobalt will slide into a deficit next year, as rising demand and stalled production projects boost prices, Sherritt International told Reuters.

Martin Vydra, managing director at Toronto-based Sherritt International S.TO, predicts a cobalt deficit of between 1,000-3,000 tonnes in 2010.

"I believe that pricing is starting to now track supply and demand and that there is more room to go up," Vydra told Reuters in an interview.

-END-
 
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